The gory details. by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com I know it sometimes looks like we ignore occasions when we totally blow forecasts. But actually we are acutely aware of our errors and when the mistakes are really big we work together to figure out what happened. Normally this all happens behind the scenes but I thought since my Southern California…
Fog induced local sea breezes defy forecasting. by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com There is one pattern for which models and all empirical data can not begin to forecast. Like I said in today’s forecast if the fog buries the coast then the winds will be weaker than forecast. But I should have added that if you…
The sensor reading says the winds ramped up to a useful range. But… by Mike Godsey, mike (at) iwindsurf.com Update 7AM Friday: Feedback was that the Waddell forecast for late winds was spot on! Whew! If you look at the green part of my special update I mention that despite the sub teen wind at…
The “BIG picture” suggests, not! by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com Funny, forecasting is a lot like growing up. As a kid you can only focus on the obvious. As you mature your world expands. When I first started forecasting I looked at the things right in front of me: the fog, the ocean buoys, the SFO-SAC…
We need the Waddell winds to RIP! by Mike Godsey, mike at iwindsurf.com I am hoping this turns out to be one of my worst forecasts ever and the winds RIP the entire contest time. But… As forecast the North Pacific High, after a long absence, is reforming and mid morning Waddell is already in…
Marine layer deepens, SW flow increases and Sherman Island sees AM winds. by Mike Godsey, mike at iwindsurf.com In this video animation from the GFS model the imagery switches back and forth from the weak surface winds to the powerful 500mb wind of an upper trough at ≈ 18,000 ft. Looking at the weaker surface…
Meet the nemesis of Coyote and 3rd. Ave. winds. by Mike Godsey This blog is a work in progress but it is so relevant today that I thought I would at least post the graphics. Sometimes you read in the forecast that the pressure gradient is strongest to Redding. And you probably wonder how an areas…
Forecasters cringe. by Mike Godsey As you read my forecast for 7 AM this morning you are also probably cringing both at its length and all the weasel words. Well here is my excuse: Different models have different resolution, different parameters and approach the physics of the atmosphere from different perspectives. So when it comes to…
Combo of massive NPH and unusual venting thermal low in Basin promise strong wind! by Mike Godsey Most models and forecasts promise strong wind this Friday and through the weekend. You all know the mantra: high pressure over the ocean extending towards Portland and low pressure towards the Columbia mean good wind. But exactly what do these high…
NW winds from the NPH…NOT! by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com Yes, the wind felt like normal NW wind curving into Southern California and the bay today May 15. However the North Pacific High’s surface NW winds are nowhere to be found in the pacific near California. Southern California The tiny surface low associated with the upper trough…