Eddy rules, dies, and NW winds rule. by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com I will add text to this blog as I fine tune the forecast. But the 3 part video gives the you the big picture about today through Monday.
SSW wind through Muir Bay & Gate focuses San Pablo Bay robbing Sherman Island of peak winds. by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com Forecast note at 7AM today: “As the marine surge ramps up the flow will first be diverted into Napa in the so watch the San Pablo Bay sensor for S to SSW wind. If…
Today vs. Tomorrow: The isobars tell the story. by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com The 2 key players in the Bay Area summer winds are the North Pacific High’s NW winds and the Central Valley thermal. Today and especially tomorrow the NW wind are only bit players. So the Central Valley commands the weather stage. Paradoxically this…
North Pacific High ridge, eddy & upper low may trigger a marine surge. by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com Last Sunday in the extended forecast I issued a Marine Surge Watch for this Friday. This is my jargon to give you a heads up that there is a chance of a surge of southerly wind and fog pouring through…
Rio Daze winds at Sherman Island. by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com In the summer the Bay Area often has a wind pattern I call a Combo day. On these days we see a mixture of NW andSW wind in which brings wind to much of the Bay waters. The relative balance of the NW wind from the North Pacific…
The gory details. by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com I know it sometimes looks like we ignore occasions when we totally blow forecasts. But actually we are acutely aware of our errors and when the mistakes are really big we work together to figure out what happened. Normally this all happens behind the scenes but I thought since my Southern California…
Fog induced local sea breezes defy forecasting. by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com There is one pattern for which models and all empirical data can not begin to forecast. Like I said in today’s forecast if the fog buries the coast then the winds will be weaker than forecast. But I should have added that if you…
The sensor reading says the winds ramped up to a useful range. But… by Mike Godsey, mike (at) iwindsurf.com Update 7AM Friday: Feedback was that the Waddell forecast for late winds was spot on! Whew! If you look at the green part of my special update I mention that despite the sub teen wind at…
The “BIG picture” suggests, not! by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com Funny, forecasting is a lot like growing up. As a kid you can only focus on the obvious. As you mature your world expands. When I first started forecasting I looked at the things right in front of me: the fog, the ocean buoys, the SFO-SAC…
We need the Waddell winds to RIP! by Mike Godsey, mike at iwindsurf.com I am hoping this turns out to be one of my worst forecasts ever and the winds RIP the entire contest time. But… As forecast the North Pacific High, after a long absence, is reforming and mid morning Waddell is already in…