The “BIG picture” suggests, not! by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com Funny, forecasting is a lot like growing up. As a kid you can only focus on the obvious. As you mature your world expands. When I first started forecasting I looked at the things right in front of me: the fog, the ocean buoys, the SFO-SAC…
We need the Waddell winds to RIP! by Mike Godsey, mike at iwindsurf.com I am hoping this turns out to be one of my worst forecasts ever and the winds RIP the entire contest time. But… As forecast the North Pacific High, after a long absence, is reforming and mid morning Waddell is already in…
Marine layer deepens, SW flow increases and Sherman Island sees AM winds. by Mike Godsey, mike at iwindsurf.com In this video animation from the GFS model the imagery switches back and forth from the weak surface winds to the powerful 500mb wind of an upper trough at ≈ 18,000 ft. Looking at the weaker surface…
Meet the nemesis of Coyote and 3rd. Ave. winds. by Mike Godsey This blog is a work in progress but it is so relevant today that I thought I would at least post the graphics. Sometimes you read in the forecast that the pressure gradient is strongest to Redding. And you probably wonder how an areas…
Forecasters cringe. by Mike Godsey As you read my forecast for 7 AM this morning you are also probably cringing both at its length and all the weasel words. Well here is my excuse: Different models have different resolution, different parameters and approach the physics of the atmosphere from different perspectives. So when it comes to…
Combo of massive NPH and unusual venting thermal low in Basin promise strong wind! by Mike Godsey Most models and forecasts promise strong wind this Friday and through the weekend. You all know the mantra: high pressure over the ocean extending towards Portland and low pressure towards the Columbia mean good wind. But exactly what do these high…
NW winds from the NPH…NOT! by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com Yes, the wind felt like normal NW wind curving into Southern California and the bay today May 15. However the North Pacific High’s surface NW winds are nowhere to be found in the pacific near California. Southern California The tiny surface low associated with the upper trough…
Shoves the North Pacific High over 1000 miles west of California by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com
by Kerry Anderson & Mike Godsey Anyone who says the weather is boring in Southern California isn’t trying to forecast the winds this afternoon. The WindAlert Plus model below shows the strong winds we forecast for the NW coastline and also for Isabella today. We expected that but were a surprised at how much the…
Why good forecasts… go bad by Mike Godsey “I hate it when F**king Godsey promises on Friday night that Saturday morning will see low 20’s at Sherman Island . Worse the forecast has mealy mouth words about deep fog making the AM winds iffy. So today I make the long dawn drive to Sherman only to find the promising predawn 15 knots…