Poorly positioned high pressure at the surface and an upper trough aloft means mild winds. by Mike Godsey, mail: MikeATiwindsurf.com Looking at the model animation below note that in part one we are seeing the surface winds while in part 2 we are seeing the winds of an upper trough at about 18,000 ft. The surface animation shows there is…
by Mike Godsey You know the routine. First one to two day of strong El Norte winds. Then 1 or 2 days of mild El Norte + mild local sea breezes. So today you would expect at least upper-teens northerly wind. But…..no. Why, let’s examine the images below. First look at the surface isobars for yesterday. Note the high pressure in the Great Basin and how…
by Mike Godsey, Mike AT iwindsurf.com The model output below from yesterday and today show 3 critical differences: 1. The high pressure is weaker today and evidenced by the greater distance between the isobars. 2. Today the high pressure has centered further north of the ideal location near the 4 corners. 3. And you can see below…
Baja Forecast and Guide Links: Home | Daily Human Forecast | Why Baja blows | Feedback: Baja forecast | | Road Rules | Driving Down | Where to go. | | Food & Water | Camping| Resorts | Money, insurance, pets | Hurricane Diary | Windless days | East Cape driving maps | Fish/Surf | Baja photos | Most of the eastern Pacific hurricanes run up the coast of mainland Mexico then turn into the Pacific without impacting Baja. But as the imagery below shows some do…
Daily Human Forecast Home | Why Baja blows | Feedback: Baja forecast | | Road Rules | Driving Down | Where to go. | | Food & Water | Camping| Resorts | Money, insurance, pets | Hurricane Diary | Windless days | East Cape driving maps | Fish/Surf | Baja photos | Forecasting for Baja’s East Cape is hard. Many of the tools we take for granted in the USA are not available. And unlike the USA where we have lots of sensors at major…
Where to go for Baja winter winds: by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com First, don’t confuse the April-Oct. down-the-line wave riding at Punta San Carlos and the other spots on the Baja Pacific coast with Sea of Cortez kiting and windsurfing. Different season, different crowd, and scant wave riding except when there is exceptionally big swell that breaks…
Forecasting when locally formed clouds are present is very tricky. by Mike Godsey, mike AT iwindsurf.com La Ventana and Los Barriles human forecast link: http://wx.ikitesurf.com/proforecast/56 La Ventana is always a tricky place to forecast given the lack of our proprietary 1 and 3 km resolution models and sparse sensor coverage. But the worse days are…
Sergio now tracking south of Puntat San Carlos. by Mike Godsey, mikeATiwindsurf.com Today, Oct 10, 2018, hurricane Sergio has made the boomerang turn to the east as modeled. But it has taken a more southerly of all the modeled trajectories. This means it will pass over Baja well south of the surf sailing mecca of San Carlos….
Hurricane Sergio boomerang! by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com So take a look at this first image. It shows the tracks of all the hurricanes in the eastern Pacific in the period 1980-2005. It is clear that the vast majority of such hurricanes originate off Central America then curve south of the tip of Baja then zoom…
Fall type northerly winds return to the west coast. by Mike Godsey, mike@iwindsurf.com In part one of this blog, we saw that during recent days the North Pacific High had disappeared from the eastern Pacific depriving the west coast of its northerly winds. This 2nd. part of the blog shows the return of the North Pacific High and touches on…