So far the Baja 2024-25 winter wind season has been a great one with moderate winds almost every day. But one expected factor in the large scale wind recipe has been missing. Yes, the expected La Niña has been missing from the pacific weather patterns.
Meteorologists have been expecting La Niña for months but in the last week the pattern has finally developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean albeit a weak and brief La Niña. A La Niña Advisory is currently in place with a 59% chance of continuing through April 2025. The Climate Prediction Center, says this La Niña will be weak and eventually transition to neutral phase this spring.
During La Niña events, the subtropical jet stream typically shifts northward, resulting in fewer cloudy wind killing days over southern Baja California.
This atmospheric adjustment often leads to the maintenance of low-pressure systems south of Cabo San Lucas, which can enhance the “El Norte” winds—strong northerly winds prevalent in the winter months over the Sea of Cortez. We have been seeing this enhanced low-pressure south of Cabo all of this winter season and it has been the major factor in our reliable winds.
Reduced Storm Frequency: The cooler waters associated with La Niña often result in a decrease in storm frequencies in certain areas. This reduction can influence wind patterns, leading to more stable and predictable wind conditions over the Sea of Cortez.
La Niña events are typically associated with higher-than-normal atmospheric pressure over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This increases the chance of the North Pacific High add some wind to the Sea of Cortez.
La Niña conditions often lead to the development of a more pronounced high-pressure ridge over the western United States, including the Great Basin and 4-Corners region. So we can expect more El Norte winds.
However, the current La Niña is considered weak, which may lead to less consistent impacts compared to stronger La Niña events. While there is a tendency for increased high-pressure frequency in the Great Basin during La Niña winters, the strength and persistence of these systems can vary. Therefore, while some increase in high-pressure occurrences is possible, the overall effect may be moderate due to the weak nature of the current La Niña.