When you look at a model forecast one key thing to look for is the resolution. For an overall idea about the wind and weather for a large region a 9km or 5 km resolution model like you see on the amazing windy.com site is great. It is also excellent for extended forecasts.

But when you are looking for launch site winds, especially in an area with nearby mountains and valleys higher resolution become vital.

The higher the resolution the better a model can see the how wind flows and accelerates towards the pressure gradient as it encounters valleys and mountains and venturi effects.

(25 years ago when I first started doing La Ventana forecasts the models for the area had a resolution of about 50–100 km. The forecasts sucked but were better than nothing.)

Today’s forecast for Rasta Beach, La Ventana and Los Barriles, based in part on a 1 km model, illustrates this perfectly.

Take a quick look at this 9 km windy.com forecast for the Rasta Beach, La Ventana and Los Barriles area winds. You can see that the overall winds are ESE and that there is some wind acceleration near La Ventana. But there is not much detail.

Where as the ikitesurf.com forecast actually has NE winds for La Ventana and SE winds for nearby Rasta Beach and even weaker easterly winds for Los Barriles. Lets take an illustrated look at my ikitesurf.com forecast for today.

Baja California forecast valid for Tue, Feb 4 2025

Issued Tue, Feb 4 08:00 AM by Meteorologist Mike Godsey

Weak easterly winds. Perfect for wind action on Pacific side or local fishing, SUP, biking, gorumet pizza and museums at El Triunfo or just sulking.

Bottom Line: Slightly holey NE sub to low-teens for La Ventana and weaker Rasta Beach and much weaker for Los Barriles except near La Ribera with low-teens E.

Today’s wind recipe: The wind pantry is almost empty today, due perhaps to the recently imposed tariffs. Or it could be the low-pressure and atmospheric river targeting San Francisco, California.

1. Low-pressure to the north creates SE winds for most of the Sea of Cortez including Los Barriles.

2. Local low-pressure in the Los Planes Valley turns and accelerates those winds to NNE winds near La Ventana and Rasta Beach.

3. SW winds on the nearby mountains may make the beach winds unreliable.

La Ventana: NE sub to low-teens but sometimes up and down near shore.
El Sargento to Rasta: NE sub to low-teens but sometimes up and down near shore.
Los Barriles: Sub-teens and a bit holey