By WeatherFlow Forecaster

OBX Cranks 3/26/15 Instead Of Disappointing

Tim Kent


  • 1st East Coast shift back in the forecaster chair or in my case couch-no excuses.
  • Pretty straightforward synoptic scenario with a Warm front lifting back up the coast in advance of approaching Cold front.



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  • The suggestion for most of the coast was for warmish moist S’rlys to fill in wherever Marine Layering was not an issue.
  • For many well exposed S facers up and down the East Coast marine layering WAS an issue and the forecast was unfolding nicely.


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  • Data from Neds Point suggesting typical marine layering graph with ups and downs and struggling to pass 10kts until winds veer more shore parallel late.

Thinking I am like really smart and got this forecast thing all figured out I merrily power through my forecasts Wednesday PM with this being my OBX 7PM update…

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  • Important to note here is that these tables are ~ 10kts lower than much of the model suite.  I figure that I am smarter than they are and am gonna score a good forecast while all other sources get busted with much too strong of flow.

For the 7AM update I note that most areas are going according to plan but when I get to the OBX I am shocked  to see this:

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  • Here you can plainly see ALL of the guidance suggesting solid S’rlys
  • I have to scramble to get back in line and post a 7AM update that is much more aggressive.

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All scrambling and Mr. Smarty Pants aside lets take a closer look into the factors that led me to be so confident that Marine Layering would sap the S’rly flow for the OBX and so many other zones.


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So in spite of all the whys….why not??? Uncertainty lingers….

  • Looks like a slightly stronger gradient developed over and just offshore of the OBX.
  • The directions were more shore parallel than expected early on.
  • The OBX has a lot of differential temperature boundaries that aide in mixing regardless of water temps on the beach.

Other thoughts and ideas welcome!